What a Trump Cabinet Might Look Like
Investigating the second administration. The post What a Trump Cabinet Might Look Like appeared first on The American Conservative.
What a Trump Cabinet Might Look Like
Investigating the second administration.
The leaves are falling in Washington—and so is the spell of Kamala Harris’s inevitability.
Whether this is merely the latest gust in the hurricane of shifts that has defined this race since at least June is any man’s guess. But the conjecture—and very real shadow games—that have framed the discussions of personnel in a second Donald Trump presidency are beginning to feel like the prelude to forming a real government.
If history is any guide, and it may not be, the first thing the president-elect will do will solidify his transition chair and pick a chief of staff. In 2020, Joe Biden named Ron Klain (a person who once betrayed the 46th president) chief by November 11 that year. In 2016, Trump and his son-in-law Jared Kushner wiped out Chris Christie as head of the nascent transition by November 11. On November 13, 2016, Trump named the Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus his chief of staff, but installed Steve Bannon in the newly-created role of White House chief strategist after passing him over for the official role. It was to be an uneasy, and unsustainable, power-sharing role between the two men (three, if you count Kushner, perhaps the real albeit unofficial chief of staff).
The leading candidates for chief this go-around are probably (in no particular order): Susie Wiles, a seasoned Florida political operator and Trump’s main campaign brain, but also potentially a divisive selection with the grassroots; Kushner (officially this time); Stephen Miller, the immigration hardliner who will thrill the base but revolt the mainstream media; Russ Vought, the social conservative hardliner, who would have a similar galvanizing–polarizing effect to Miller’s, while drawing attention to an issue set (social issues) that isn’t particularly Trumpian.
But the dark horse may be John McEntee, the former personnel director. At 34, he would be the youngest chief of staff since Dick Cheney in the Ford administration. His selection would thrill true believers and Trump’s youth wing, but criticisms that he is too “green” and critiques of past scandals would surface in the media. It’s also entirely possible that Trump erodes the power of the role—“acting” White House Chief of Staff Mick Mulvaney and Trump’s last chief, Mark Meadows, probably won’t get historical treatments a la James Baker.
From there, Trump will likely move to the “great offices of state,” to use a British term. But any role requiring Senate confirmation will be constrained by the terms of a Republican victory. This reality is likely to be more apparent than following in any election in memory, thanks to the unique nature of Trump’s political phenomenon, the zenith of American polarization, and a possibly very weird electoral map. A second Trump cabinet reliant on the final blessing of Maine’s Susan Collins and Alaska’s Lisa Murkowski is far different than the one that would ensue if, say, Trump and the GOP were to sweep the Blue Wall states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.
In the minimum-to-moderate scenario (51-54 Senate seats), the favorite for secretary of state is Robert C. O’Brien. Trump’s last national security advisor is a pragmatic, polished foreign policy bigwig who has done an assiduous and under-the-radar job of not offending any Trumpian constituency. And, as is a theme with Trump, the well-coiffed, Brioni-clothed Californian former trial lawyer is straight out of Hollywood, and looks the part.
O’Brien’s principal rival for the role is actually his friend, the fellow Californian Ric Grenell, formerly the ambassador to Germany and acting national intelligence director. Grenell would be a flashier pick that would enthuse some stalwart Trump fans, but he would probably rely on figures like Kari Lake, his ally, to get through the upper chamber. Lake is not favored to win Arizona’s Senate race. Grenell’s pedigree is mostly hawkish, and his selection would be a disappointment to those hoping for a purer distillation of Trumpian restraint in foreign policy. A third contender for Foggy Bottom is the Tennessean Senator Bill Hagerty, Trump’s former man in Japan. Hagerty has kept a low profile but is a known commodity in conversations around a potential Trump transition.
A benighted selection would be the former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, the neoconservative runner-up to Trump in the primaries. But politics in the smartphone age has shown the power of online insurgencies. As happened to Pennsylvania’s Governor Josh Shapiro’s reported consideration as Kamala Harris’s running mate this past summer, a digital insurgency would probably emerge against Haley to kill her selection in the crib.
At the Department of Defense, Trump may well select the Arkansan Senator Tom Cotton, who has quickly emerged as one of the most effective surrogates for the campaign this cycle. But Trump has passed on giving Cotton top jobs before, and, as with Grenell, his hawkish bona fides aren’t exactly stuff that smacks of “this time will be different.” Hagerty is possible at Defense as well. The selection of a pragmatist would likely make most sides breathe easier. There would be far worse things in the world.
A reprise of Mike Pompeo, only this time at the Pentagon, is possible. But the status of the relationship between the president and his former top diplomat is not well understood and potentially poor. Notably, this time last year, when Virginia’s Governor Glenn Youngkin was weighing a challenge to Trump in the primary, the keynote speaker at Youngkin’s secretive autumn conclave at the famed Cavalier Hotel in Virginia Beach was none other than Pompeo. Pompeo has not been prominent on the trail for Trump. And Pompeo has taken on work for a Ukrainian telecommunications firm, Kyivstar. None of this screams “major political player” in this current moment in Republican politics.
The greatest break with business-as-usual at the Pentagon might actually be a continuity pick: Trump’s last (acting) secretary of defense, Chris Miller. The famed former “horse soldier” was one of the first men on the ground in Afghanistan and, in the dark days of late 2020 and early 2021, helped end America’s doomed crusade there. In a little-noticed longform interview for the Australian Financial Review this summer, Miller flashed his Trumpian id.
“I fully embraced Thomas Friedman’s The World is Flat globalism, the whole thing: free trade, and the policies that gutted American industry and left a devastated rust belt.… There was plenty of reason for Trump to say, ‘You’ve been played by elites,’” Miller said. “I didn’t think it was that desperate until I went back to Iowa in 2012.… I do believe in the wisdom of the crowd. There is a deep, deep feeling in America that the old way of doing things is not working.”
Miller diagnosed: ”We fought two wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. A lot of people believed in the cause and to lose so dramatically and decisively really made common Americans question the wisdom of officials and Trump is just channeling that.”
At national security advisor, competition for the most important non-Senate confirmed appointment in government will be teeming.
At the end of the day, Trump may well settle on Elbridge Colby. Whatever the men’s differences, Trump is likely to be impressed with his former Defense undersecretary’s Harvard pedigree, youth, ambition, and CIA connections (his grandfather was director). As with others, aesthetics may play a role. And the selection of J.D. Vance for vice president signals that, far from being the nihilist-on-wheels parody of the man, Trump is curious about the youth wing intelligentsia that supports him, the so-called “New Right.” Colby is an eminence grise in these circles. Even a recent, subtle comedown from an ultra-hardline stance on Taiwan signals that the forty-something Colby is readying for center stage. He is preparing to work for a president who has no real track record of being a hawk’s hawk on China.
Grenell is possible as NSA, as is Keith Kellogg, the former deputy NSA. But Trump has passed on Kellogg multiple times before. And the retired general, while tremendously networked, has distinguished himself in recent years as a particularly odd and quixotic Ukraine hawk. Kellogg (a tight ally with John Bolton’s former chief of staff, Fred Fleitz) argues the Biden administration has failed in Ukraine because it has not supported the Zelensky administration enough.
“Have the United States given Ukraine a support of F-16s? No,” Kellogg told Voice of America in July. “Did we provide long-range fires early for the Ukrainians to shoot in Russians? No. Did we provide permission for them to shoot deep into Russia? No. Did the United States provide them the armored capabilities they needed? We gave 31 tanks. Thirty-one tanks is not even a battalion in the United States Army.” Kellogg continued: “You have to give more arms to them because you can’t trust the Russians. You just have to do it.” (No, you don’t “just have to do it,” actually.)
But the true dark horse to head up the National Security Council may be another former deputy, Michael Anton—if he wants the job.
Moving away from national security (officially, anyway), Trump will need a steady hand at Treasury, as some in the business class will doubtless drench themselves at the prospect of a second Trump go. History would imply that the favorite is Howard Lutnick, the Cantor Fitzgerald chief who is the current co-chair of the Trump transition. Like ex-Goldman partner Steve Mnuchin in 2016, the financier might have gotten in on the action at just the right moment. In both Democratic and conventional Republican administrations, Treasury is reserved for only the toniest of players—Goldman chiefs and former Federal Reserve chairs. With Trump, it’s the Wild West. Lutnick has emerged as a persuasive champion of Trump’s tariff policy in recent weeks, and he has a charismatic story. Lutnick lost 658 employees, including his brother, in the twin towers on September 11, 2001.
Jamie Dimon, the eternal JP Morgan head, will get some buzz for Treasury, but one would think a failure to endorse Trump this round when so many of his fellow elite have taken the plunge would finally end this dream. Another possibility is Kushner, who has a long career in finance ahead of him after his father-in-law’s day in the sun. He may want a blue chip credential to add to his considerable professional portfolio. (And many would be quietly elated to keep him away from foreign policy.)
A place must be found for Vivek Ramaswamy, many will argue—that is, if he wants a job and not to run for Ohio’s governor (and potentially become the DeSantis of the Midwest, but with a silver tongue). The most likely landing spot is the Department of Homeland Security. But the self-made superstar may think twice about the role. If deportation raids are actually to occur (dubious), the man behind them could be thanked by history and scapegoated by the present. It’s not exactly prime real estate for someone who wants to be president.
If Trump does pursue a harder line on immigration (and for perhaps the first time, polling indicates the public outside of Republican ranks is with him), he may install the aforementioned Stephen Miller at DHS, but he will need some comfortable margins in the Senate. A safer perch for Ramaswamy would be U.N. ambassador, a job Joe Biden hilariously declined to give Pete Buttigieg (perhaps to placate Kamala Harris). Turtle Bay is showtime for any politician who can generate buzz, and from there, it’s an easy entrée to the New York donor set.
Some will also say a place must also be found for Steve Bannon, who, with excellent dramatic timing, will be released from prison on November 1, nigh on the eve of Election Day. But, again, there is a quiet but open question: Does he even want a role? The exact circumstances of Bannon’s departure from the White House in August 2017 remain shrouded in mystery—probably a firing, but maybe not strictly. Bannon, as he does, indicated much relief publicly back then.
“I’ve got my hands back on my weapons,” he told the Weekly Standard, referring to Breitbart, which he later replaced with War Room and a broader arsenal of the Bannonite dark arts. In 2023, it was revealed ahead of a joint event with the two men at Mar-A-Lago that Bannon and Trump had not spoken to each other in person in six years.
Finally there is the question of attorney general. Trump has so far found no success, from his perspective, at the Department of Justice.
It is plausible Trump goes with a hatchetman, especially if the election is a relative landslide. Mike Davis has emerged as an internet pugilist par excellence, provocatively vowing a “reign of terror” in a sort-of suicide mission if he were given the job for a short stint. Jeff Clark has emerged as a movement martyr in recent years, and it is of course possible Trump gives him the nod in an act of elaborate revenge.
But for the decade’s worth of ink spilled about Trump as proto-Mussolini, the diagnosis Bannon gave to NBC in June seems apt: “Donald Trump is a moderate in the MAGA movement.” Villain origin stories such as The Apprentice might get movie deals, and might be more interesting, but Trump has given more jobs to former Exxon CEOs and Raytheon execs than old cronies from New York.
An interesting choice for DoJ would be Ted Cruz.
Cruz was seemingly born to be the nation’s top lawyer, and he might be getting tired of being a target of cosmic significance every Senate election cycle. (He may lose one of these days). And while he will remain a player in Trump’s Washington in the Senate, it’s hard to see how he’s really “in the mix” the way he was 10 years ago. A leading Cabinet post would change all that. Love or hate Cruz, Trump would add one of the brightest minds in law and politics to his chess set.
The appointment of Cruz would also have a subtle safety switch for Trump. Cruz was Trump’s most brutal rival in the 2016 primary, and, though both have tried, the relationship has never fully recovered. Cruz wants the presidency as a wino wants lunchtime Sancerre, but it’s unlikely Cruz will ever really regain his renegade buzz of the mid-2010s, unless he gets another starring role. The Trump show will dominate the box office, day and night. Trump also knows Cruz can’t betray him twice—not if he wants to seek the presidency. And if Cruz emerges as “Trump’s warrior,” he will cleanse himself of the sins of 2016.
Stranger things have happened, and things might be about to get very strange.
The post What a Trump Cabinet Might Look Like appeared first on The American Conservative.
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